NFL Week 12 Betting Recap: Chiefs Rebound, Big
Favorites Fail to Cover, and College Football Odds Update
Kansas City Chiefs Break One-Score Curse, But Struggle Against the
Spread (ATS)
The Kansas City Chiefs finally found success in close games during NFL
Week 12, defeating the Indianapolis Colts 23-20. This victory ended a significant narrative
surrounding the team: after going 11-0 in one-score contests in the 2024
season, the Chiefs had entered Sunday's action with an 0-5 record in one-score
games for the 2025 season.
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| NFL Week 12 Betting Recap Chiefs Rebound, Big Favorites Fail to Cover |
NFL Week 12 Betting Recap Chiefs Rebound, Big Favorites Fail to Cover
- Despite their mediocre
5-5 record prior to Sunday's game, the Chiefs were installed as 4.5-point
favorites against the 8-2 Colts. This faith from sportsbooks and bettors
highlights the enduring market respect for the team, led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid.
- Caesars Sportsbook
noted that the Chiefs remained highly respected in their Power Rankings and
were heavily backed by bettors. Even after a Week 11 loss to the Denver Broncos,
Kansas City was
the second-most-backed team by handle at Caesars and one of BetMGM's largest
Super Bowl liabilities.
The Key Takeaway: While the Chiefs secured the outright win, they failed to cover the 4.5-point spread. Their season record against
the spread now stands at 5-6, including a challenging 1-6 ATS mark versus teams
with winning records.
Early Slate Betting Trends: Parlays Pay Out as
Double-Digit Favorites Stumble
The early Sunday NFL
slate proved to be a mixed bag for sportsbooks. While all seven favorites
secured outright wins (moneyline), only two managed to cover the point spread.
·
Parlay Success: "The early morning slate wasn't ideal for
the book," noted Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel, as heavy
favorites stacked into parlay tickets paid off for many bettors.
·
ATS Underdog Wins: However, underdogs covering the spread helped
mitigate the damage for the books. Specifically, all three double-digit favorites
on the slate—the Detroit Lions (-14), Baltimore Ravens (-14.5), and Seattle Seahawks (-11.5)—failed to cover their large spreads
despite winning their games outright.
·
Notable Clutch Win: The Dallas Cowboys delivered a massive comeback victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, rallying from a deficit to win 24-21 after being
listed as long as +1300 on the live money line.
·
Rookie QB Prop Bet: Shedeur Sanders (Cleveland Browns) successfully cashed the
"over" on his 161.5 passing yards prop in his starting debut,
finishing with 209 yards in the win over the Las Vegas Raiders.
College
Football Betting Odds & Ends
The
"Pros-vs-Joes" Oklahoma
Showdown
Saturday's
Oklahoma-Missouri game was defined by a battle between professional and public
betting money. The line on the game saw dramatic movement:
·
The
Oklahoma Sooners opened as high as 9.5-point favorites.
·
Influential bettors (Pros) sided with the underdog Missouri Tigers, crashing the line down to as low as -3.5 at some
sportsbooks.
·
Public bettors (Joes) heavily supported Oklahoma, making them the most popular bet
by both number of wagers and amount bet at DraftKings and BetMGM.
Result: The Sooners won 17-6, meaning the Joes prevailed as Oklahoma
covered the final -3.5 point spread.
Texas Tech: The ATS King
The Texas Tech Red Raiders continue their stellar run against the spread,
boasting the best record in college football at 10-1 ATS.
·
Texas
Tech is the first Power 5 team since 2016 Colorado to cover the spread in 10 of their
first 11 games.
·
They
aim to become the first team since 2012 Northwestern to cover the spread in at
least 11 regular-season games when they face West Virginia this Saturday as a 21.5-point
road favorite.
Updated
Heisman Trophy Odds (via ESPN BET, as of Sunday)
The Heisman race
remains tight with the following contenders topping the board:
Notable Thanksgiving
Week Opening Lines (via ESPN BET)
Major rivalry games
are dominating the Week 13 betting slate:
·
Georgia -12.5 (Total 59.5) vs. Georgia Tech
·
Texas A&M -2.5 (Total 51.5) at Texas
·
Ohio State -11.5
(Total 44.5) at Michigan
·
Alabama -3.5 (Total 48) at Auburn
